The Smarter People Blog

Human Capital Analtyics thoughts, views and opinion, from SPP thought leadership and industry experts.

ALL MODELS ARE WRONG!

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In 1976 a statistician, George Box, stated “All models are wrong, but some are useful."

So, what does this mean? It means that a model is only a representation or simplification of reality. If it were reality, it would be reality and not a model. The amount of model “wrongness” is a matter of degree. The real question is, how wrong do they have to be to not be useful. Put another way, how well does the model reflect reality? For some models we may never really know how closely they reflect reality, and for some we have a pretty darn good idea. For instance, remember when the Google map cartographers had it all wrong and the Google map app kept sending people in the wrong direction? Those models were so wrong they weren’t useful.

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L&D Evaluation Belief #4: We can’t understand the why behind the results

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This post is part of a series on beliefs about social experimentation; if you missed the first post, start at the beginning of the series here.

Belief 4:

Evaluation findings are of little value because the “black box” just reveals that an intervention is effective or not, but nothing about why.

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L&D Evaluation Belief #3: Social experiments lack external validity

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This post is part of a series on beliefs about social experimentation; if you missed the first post, start at the beginning of the series here.

Belief 3:
Social experiments sacrifice external validity (i.e., outside the study; findings can be generalized to other interventions and settings) for internal validity (i.e., inside the study, ensuring the evaluation/research is robust and executed correctly).

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PEOPLE SUPPORT WHAT THEY HELP CREATE—3 STEPS

In the 1950s, Richard Beckhard coined the term organizational development. One of his six assumptions about the nature of organizations is that people will support what they help create.

 

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Who Determines Whether You Offer Good Service?

People often study a subject until they can get 100% right on a test of their understanding of the subject. While this is a sensible approach, it turns out that about 10% of the correct answers are comprised of guesswork, short-term memory, and information not fully learned.

 

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L&D Evaluation Belief #1: It’s too expensive

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There are many widely held negative beliefs about social experimentation (i.e., L&D evaluation) that limit effective organizational decision making, the ability to generate reliable evidence, and deeply informed insights. There absolutely is some element of truth to the negative beliefs, but I want to weaken these beliefs and arm you with arguments to counter them as you educate your stakeholders and drive smarter decision making.

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Human Capital Analytics Modeled by “The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse”

Human Capital Analytics Modeled by “The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse”

Have you heard of The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse?  If not, check it out here.  The 13 Keys model is a retrospective (historical) predictive model for determining the outcome of presidential elections.  The 13 Keys have retrospectively predicted the 1860-1980 and forecasted the 1984-2012 elections.  Predictive models work! Based on my very active and current knowledge of the political landscape, applying The 13 Keys, if the election were held today it would be a very close race... no elephant or donkey landslide!  However, the near-term outcomes of the Iran nuclear deal may very well be the tipping point sans all the other rhetoric.

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Get Your Nerd On! Read the NEW Human Capital Analytics Book!

Get Your Nerd On! Read the NEW Human Capital Analytics Book!

Vestrics, a Smarter People Planning partner, just released their third book: Optimize Your Greatest Asset – Your People: How to Apply Analytics to Big Data to Improve Your Human Capital Investments by Gene Pease, their Founder.  Vestrics is a predictive analytics and workforce optimization solution provider.  As with all Vestrics books, there is a plethora of background research, case studies, applied techniques, and industry expert POVs.

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People, Please Align Your Measurement Strategy

People, Please Align Your Measurement Strategy

Each year I am asked to judge learning and development (L&D) awards. For several years, I have judged the Brandon Hall Awards and CLO magazine’s LearningElite benchmarking awards. I often consult with organizations to help them draft their L&D application for submission. Yes, I even encourage my clients to submit our joint projects for awards and benchmarking too. Not only for recognition sake, but I see it as a responsibility to give back to field of L&D. We all need to learn from each other in a reciprocal manner.

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