The Smarter People Blog

Human Capital Analtyics thoughts, views and opinion, from SPP thought leadership and industry experts.

ALL MODELS ARE WRONG!

busmodel

In 1976 a statistician, George Box, stated “All models are wrong, but some are useful."

So, what does this mean? It means that a model is only a representation or simplification of reality. If it were reality, it would be reality and not a model. The amount of model “wrongness” is a matter of degree. The real question is, how wrong do they have to be to not be useful. Put another way, how well does the model reflect reality? For some models we may never really know how closely they reflect reality, and for some we have a pretty darn good idea. For instance, remember when the Google map cartographers had it all wrong and the Google map app kept sending people in the wrong direction? Those models were so wrong they weren’t useful.

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L&D Evaluation Belief #4: We can’t understand the why behind the results

analyizeresult

This post is part of a series on beliefs about social experimentation; if you missed the first post, start at the beginning of the series here.

Belief 4:

Evaluation findings are of little value because the “black box” just reveals that an intervention is effective or not, but nothing about why.

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L&D Evaluation Belief #3: Social experiments lack external validity

accurateresults

This post is part of a series on beliefs about social experimentation; if you missed the first post, start at the beginning of the series here.

Belief 3:
Social experiments sacrifice external validity (i.e., outside the study; findings can be generalized to other interventions and settings) for internal validity (i.e., inside the study, ensuring the evaluation/research is robust and executed correctly).

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L&D Evaluation Belief #2: You can’t show business impact

Measure Results

This post is part of a series on beliefs about social experimentation; if you missed the first post, start at the beginning of the series

Belief 2:

Evaluations are conducted on L&D interventions that are not able to show impact.

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L&D Evaluation Belief #1: It’s too expensive

decisions

There are many widely held negative beliefs about social experimentation (i.e., L&D evaluation) that limit effective organizational decision making, the ability to generate reliable evidence, and deeply informed insights. There absolutely is some element of truth to the negative beliefs, but I want to weaken these beliefs and arm you with arguments to counter them as you educate your stakeholders and drive smarter decision making.

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Will Uberization and a Gig Economy Drive to 5-Minute L&D Valuations?

As we move to a more Uberized economy, what will this mean for your company? Will Uberization drive the gig economy? Will all of the work be parsed out in gigs?

 

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Data and Decision-Making Requirements

Using verifiable data to make decisions is a valuable business strategy. Research shows that data-driven decision-making (DDDM) increases performance, output, and productivity. Top-performing organizations use analytics 5 times more than lower performers.

 

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PEOPLE SUPPORT WHAT THEY HELP CREATE—3 STEPS

In the 1950s, Richard Beckhard coined the term organizational development. One of his six assumptions about the nature of organizations is that people will support what they help create.

 

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Who Determines Whether You Offer Good Service?

People often study a subject until they can get 100% right on a test of their understanding of the subject. While this is a sensible approach, it turns out that about 10% of the correct answers are comprised of guesswork, short-term memory, and information not fully learned.

 

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L&D Evaluation Belief #1: It’s too expensive

too_expensive

There are many widely held negative beliefs about social experimentation (i.e., L&D evaluation) that limit effective organizational decision making, the ability to generate reliable evidence, and deeply informed insights. There absolutely is some element of truth to the negative beliefs, but I want to weaken these beliefs and arm you with arguments to counter them as you educate your stakeholders and drive smarter decision making.

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New SPP Partnership - Diana Thomas - Executive Coach and Advisor, MBA

New SPP Partnership - Diana Thomas - Executive Coach and Advisor, MBA

I am excited to be partnering with Dr. Stacey Boyle to provided consulting on setting up the most effective measurement/analytics strategy for organizations. Together we make a great team, blending our unique experiences to provide a holistic approach to breaking down the sometimes daunting task of developing and executing a measurement strategy tailored to the specific company needs. Read my most recent CLO article about our partnership.

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Use Statistics as a Drunken Man Uses Lamp Posts

Use Statistics as a Drunken Man Uses Lamp Posts

When an “IBM-er” joined Dell Computers, he was told at his first performance review that “Margin decreases revenue velocity.” There are trade-offs between driving gross margin vs. top-line growth. Both companies are successful, yet they measure and pursue different metrics. You need to know what YOUR company is measured on.

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Insights from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center's Analytics Journey

Insights from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center's Analytics Journey

Through a multi-pronged partnership among the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, @Smarter People Planning, and @Vestrics, we present the results of a quasi-experimental predictive analytic study on a @Skillsoft webinar. This study enabled UT Southwestern to advance from descriptive analyzes to predictive to achieve with the goal of becoming more sophisticated in analyses of HR investments to mirror the broader organization.

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Human Capital Analytics Modeled by “The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse”

Human Capital Analytics Modeled by “The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse”

Have you heard of The 13 Keys to the Whitehouse?  If not, check it out here.  The 13 Keys model is a retrospective (historical) predictive model for determining the outcome of presidential elections.  The 13 Keys have retrospectively predicted the 1860-1980 and forecasted the 1984-2012 elections.  Predictive models work! Based on my very active and current knowledge of the political landscape, applying The 13 Keys, if the election were held today it would be a very close race... no elephant or donkey landslide!  However, the near-term outcomes of the Iran nuclear deal may very well be the tipping point sans all the other rhetoric.

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Get Your Nerd On! Read the NEW Human Capital Analytics Book!

Get Your Nerd On! Read the NEW Human Capital Analytics Book!

Vestrics, a Smarter People Planning partner, just released their third book: Optimize Your Greatest Asset – Your People: How to Apply Analytics to Big Data to Improve Your Human Capital Investments by Gene Pease, their Founder.  Vestrics is a predictive analytics and workforce optimization solution provider.  As with all Vestrics books, there is a plethora of background research, case studies, applied techniques, and industry expert POVs.

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How does your organization decide where to invest?

How does your organization decide where to invest?

How does an organization balance investments in R&D versus operational improvements? Start-ups may spend up to 20% of revenue on R&D, while mature organizations drop to single digits. This is an act of science and art, as one startup’s CEO spent heavily on sales and marketing since his previous startup lost the industry due to not spending enough...but that came at the expense of R&D. As Yogi Berra said, “Predicting is very hard, especially when about the future.”

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You Will Never Rely on Opinion-Based Decisions Again - Optimization of Big Data

You Will Never Rely on Opinion-Based Decisions Again - Optimization of Big Data

By understanding where human capital investments are working – and where they are not – you can make targeted adjustments that improve impact over time. Suppose you knew that your leadership development program was working for boomers, but not millennials, would you change anything? What if your sales training was working in the U.S. but not in Europe, would you change anything? Of course you would. That is the power of optimization. But how do you get to optimization?

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People, Please Align Your Measurement Strategy

People, Please Align Your Measurement Strategy

Each year I am asked to judge learning and development (L&D) awards. For several years, I have judged the Brandon Hall Awards and CLO magazine’s LearningElite benchmarking awards. I often consult with organizations to help them draft their L&D application for submission. Yes, I even encourage my clients to submit our joint projects for awards and benchmarking too. Not only for recognition sake, but I see it as a responsibility to give back to field of L&D. We all need to learn from each other in a reciprocal manner.

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